Hillary's Popular Vote Problem

Wharton professor Gregory P. Nini and author Glenn Hurowitz (Fear and Courage in the Democratic Party) have updated their widely covered studies of the popular vote and the popular will in the 2008 Democratic primary nominating contest and the Michigan and Florida vote.

Among the conclusions of the update:

* Because of dramatically lower turnout in caucus states, caucus state residents are underrepresented in national popular vote tallies by a factor of 6.

* Even if primaries had been held everywhere, caucus states would still favor Obama, albeit by a smaller margin, based on demographic characteristics. Giving all states equal representation in the popular vote by holding primaries everywhere (and accounting for demographic differences between caucus and primary voters) would boost Obama's current popular vote margin by approximately 600,000 votes.

* If Michigan and Florida's current vote totals are included, Clinton would need to win only about 53 percent of upcoming primary votes to claim a popular vote lead. However, if vastly lower turnout in caucus states is factored in, Obama's lead returns to 689,000, an almost insurmountable advantage.

* 1/3 of Floridians and 60 % of Michiganders stayed home during their primaries because they didn't think their votes would count. Based on demographic projections from the results in other states, regular primaries there would have produced a Clinton win in Florida and an Obama win in Michigan.

The study is available for download at http://www.dcourage.com/Popular%20Vote%20Study.pdf.

Glenn Hurowitz is available at 202-552-1828. Professor Nini is available at 215-898-7770 or 202-285-0652.